Forget KAGWE’s cooked numbers, here is the real ticking time bomb as KEMRI now confirms that millions Kenyans already have COVID 19 and are spreading it

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A survey by the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) and Wellcome Trust has revealed that more than 2.6 million Kenyans could be having Covid19 without knowing it.

According to the survey, over 2.6 million Kenyans have been exposed to Coronavirus (Covid-19) and could be walking with the deadly virus.

The survey was based on 2,535 blood samples tested through blood donations collected from several parts of the country.

KEMRI developed an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) which focused on spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 which was validated and tested numerously.

The researchers concluded their analysis of how antibodies in blood samples indicate whether one was exposed or not.

Antibodies have the capacity to remain positive for months.

“There is a large gap between the confirmed test cases identified by Rapid Response Teams in testing and tracing, and the numbers of individuals in the population that we believe have been exposed,” an excerpt of the report states.

Nairobi County leads with an estimated 12.4% which translates to approximately 550,000 residents out of 4.5 million.

Rift Valley, Nyanza, Central, Eastern, Western and Coast had 510,000, 490,000, 370,000, 320,000, 220,000 and 200,000 respectively.

North Eastern did not report any case of Kenyans exposed to the virus, out of 41 blood samples collected.

The report added that Kenyans should be prepared for severe cases of the disease because large numbers of the population exposed will lead models to predict significant numbers of severe cases and deaths.

County hospitals are also monitoring for pneumonia which spiked from 137,667 in February 2020 to 195,504 in June 2020.

According to the report, approximately 6,684 deaths will be recorded with 26,093 people suffering from severe diseases.

The study detailed that Kenyans are either not getting severely sickly or are asymptomatic.

The Ministry of Health has already released a home-based care plan for Covid-19 patients, most of them asymptomatic.

It added that the best way of estimating exposure to Covid19 in Kenya would be to visit randomly selected homesteads to collect and test blood samples.

This perspective has not yet been approached because it is not practical with Kenya battling with a shortage of testing kits.

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